Analyst Silliness

Unsurprisingly several months of a massive PR assault from Microsoft is followed by a spike in sales. Halo 3 racked up 3.3 million units since launch, which is not bad, but then again also not that out of the ordinary for a blockbuster title. Nonetheless, the hand that feeds will not be bitten, and analysts use magical math to make it seem as if Xbox 360 is some revolutionary occurrence in the history of the video game industry. Count with me.

First, the quote:

“The three SKUs of Halo 3 (standard, limited edition, legendary edition) combined to sell 3.3 million units during the NPD reporting period. This had a great effect on Xbox 360 hardware adoption as sales for Microsoft’s console topped all platforms at 527.8K units.

Nintendo’s Wii, despite not really having any significant new software releases, was close behind with 501K units sold. The DS handheld also did quite well, selling another 495.8K. Looking at Sony’s platforms, the PS3 sold just 119.4K units, while the surging PSP sold 284.5K and the PS2 maintained healthy sales at 215K. At the bottom of the pack, the old GBA sold 75K units.”

(source: GameDaily BIZ)

The claim: “Xbox 360 and Halo 3 Blow Away the Competition.”

But seriously, let’s add it all up. You’re telling me that in the month following the launch of its life-giving title Halo 3, the reason why the Xbox 360 is still around at all, the competition is being blown away? Their hour of power yielded 527,800 units. Fine. Good for them. Yet in the same breath it reads that Nintendo sold 501K units of the Wii, another 495.8K DS handhelds, and another 75K of their now arcane GBA. Adds up to a sloppy one million units total.

Sony, at a time when not much is going on, sells 119.4K units of its expensive PS3, another 284.5K PSPs, and – get this – another 215K of its previous generation console PS2. Added up makes 714.5K units total.

Let’s add dollars: using the most expensive price tag for each console/handheld as found on the GameStop site, here’s what I come up with:

Microsoft — $237,504,722
Xbox 360 $449.99 x 527,800 = $237,504,722

Sony — $181,045,003
PS3 $499.99 x 119,400 = $59,698,806
PS2 $129.99 x 495,800 = $64,449,042
PSP $199.99 x 284,500 = $56,897,155

Nintendo — $194,193,282
DS $129.99 x 495,800 = $64,449,042
GBA $59.99 x 75,000 = $4,499,250
Wii $249.99 x 501,000 = $125,244,990

In terms of units sold, M$ looks pale as both its competitors outsold it by a factor 1:2. And so what if they made $40million more than the second runner up in one of their peak months? Get a grip. While Sony and Nintendo are casually wintering through M$’ early xmas and maintain steady sales of older generation hardware, Microsoft better watch out. Blown away… tsss… if this is the best they can do in the one market where they actually sell, they’re in for a surprise. And those silly analysts need to buy calculators.